Now we know why Dr. Singh failed the political aspirations of the Kashmiri people.
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New Delhi knows best when it comes to Kashmir and how to resolve the problems faced by the state, even more than the politicians of the state, and that is why the Prime Minister recently proclaimed in Kashmir “I don’t need advice or analysis from anyone in this world on Kashmir”! Notwithstanding the fact that it shows Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a leader without any grand vision for Kashmir, Mr. Modi’s statement is very much in keeping with New Delhi’s head-in-the-sand approach to understanding Kashmir. For New Delhi’s political elite, including Mr. Modi now, Kashmir is a law and order problem which can be taken care of by force, or a point of tussle with Pakistan, a problem that needs to be taken care of by giving money to Kashmiris and militarizing the state. The problem, as all of us know, is that since the very framing of the problem is itself deeply flawed, New Delhi’s Kashmir policy has consistently been a failure. To repeat what I have said at least hundred times before, to try and resolve a political problem with military force is indicative of the deep-seated poverty in New Delhi’s political imagination.
Take the argument by Mr. M. K Narayanan, the former National Security Advisor with the UPA government led by Dr. Manmohan Singh whose recent article in The Hindu (“How the Valley is changing”, November 24, 2015) reveals what the former NSA thinks about Kashmir. Given that he was the IB chief in his earlier avatar, it is safe to conclude that he reflects the views of the Indian establishment on the matter.
Narayanan forcefully summarizes his findings in the flowing words: “Developments in Jammu and Kashmir do not look very promising. The portents point to difficult times ahead. Internecine tensions and violence are on the increase. Cross-border firings show no sign of abating. The mood in the Valley is sullen. Anti-India sentiment is growing.” Why is this happening? The causes are not to be found, according to the former IB chief, in “Centre’s so-called failure to provide funds for last year’s flood affected victims, or the ideological divide on issues such as the relevance of Article 370. Or, for that matter, the ineptitude displayed by the Mufti Mohammad Sayeed government to deal with a spate of problems affecting the State.”
What then are the causes of the “changed nature of the Valley”, according to Mr. Narayanan? Now comes his three reasons for the new mess in Kashmir: 1) Increased Pakistani meddling in Kashmir as it’s army feels emboldened due to its partnership with China, 2) The emerging geopolitical realities such as the rise of puritanical Islam (meaning ISIS) and the spectre of Salafism and, 3) increasing radicalization of Kashmiri youth.
I don’t completely disagree with Mr. Narayanan. Yes, the Pakistanis have started playing up Kashmir, and the cross-border terrorism in on the rise, going simply by data and statistics. But let’s be clear, one of the main reasons why they continue to meddle is because Kashmir remains unresolved and when we had a chance to resolve it during the Musharraf era, we did not. Moreover, by dictating redlines to Pakistan on Kashmir, as Mr. Modi has done, New Delhi has shot itself in the foot and that is prompting Rawalpindi to increase the heat in J&K.
There is also the ISIS threat that is looming large on the horizon and I do not think the government of India really understands the depth of the problem. But does it mean that the Kashmiri youth is joining Daesh en masse? Hardly. Indeed, there are many more recruitments happening from other pats of the country and that is where New Delhi should focus. It would, in my reading, a mistake to take the occasional ISIS flags raised in some corner of Srinagar city seriously and conclude that ISIS has arrived in Kashmir – not it hasn’t, yet. Those flags are a warning at best and an indication of the political frustration amongst the Kashmiri youth. It would do New Delhi good to focus on the root case – a political grievance – rather than on the effect – the apocalyptic black flags of the ISIS.
Finally, is there a certain amount of radicalization within Kashmir? Yes, there is. But again this radicalization is a product of political frustration and the way to deal with it is to address, again, the root causes which are political in nature. Are we to assume, like Mr. Narayanan does, that the existence of draconian laws like AFSPA and PSA have nothing to do with youth radicalization in Kashmir? Does the overbearing presence of the armed forces in the Kashmir Valley not alienate the people of Kashmir some of who take up arms or join the ranks of militancy?
Security managers, including Mr. Narayanan given his upbringing as an intelligence man, have a tendency to reduce complex political questions to law and order issues so that such questions are simplified enough for them to deal with. When you don’t know how to deal with a political problem, his tribe believes, call is a national security problem and then the tools to deal with them are self-explanatory.
Mr. Narayanan’s article also conveniently avoids, bordering intellectual dishonesty, discussing Dr. Manmohan Singh’s Kashmir initiatives. Dr. Singh had a vision for Kashmir but when the time came to seal the deal 2007, his hands were tied behind his back. Now we know who may have stopped Dr. Singh from implementing the visionary Kashmir deal – Mr. Narayanan was his National Security Advisor from 2005 to 2010. Now we also know why Dr. Singh failed the political aspirations of the Kashmiri people.
